[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":435},["ShallowReactive",2],{"active-categories":3,"blowouts":28,"story-\u002Fstories\u002Fbig-build-cfmeu-15-billion-corruption-estimate":83,"related-\u002Fstories\u002Fbig-build-cfmeu-15-billion-corruption-estimate":392,"surround-\u002Fstories\u002Fbig-build-cfmeu-15-billion-corruption-estimate":426},[4,6,8,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27],{"category":5},"follow-the-money",{"category":7},"cost-of-living",{"category":9},"government-waste",{"category":9},{"category":9},{"category":7},{"category":7},{"category":9},{"category":9},{"category":5},{"category":9},{"category":9},{"category":7},{"category":9},{"category":9},{"category":9},{"category":7},{"category":5},{"category":7},{"category":9},{"category":9},[29,39,49,58,66,75],{"path":30,"title":31,"category":9,"date":32,"blowout":33},"\u002Fstories\u002Fbom-website-96-million-one-year-on","One year on: the BOM website that cost $96.5 million, not $4 million","2026-10-24",{"project":34,"originalCost":35,"currentCost":36,"announced":37,"note":38},"BOM website",4100000,96500000,"2025","$4.1m was the figure first given to the public.",{"path":40,"title":41,"category":9,"date":42,"blowout":43},"\u002Fstories\u002Fcross-river-rail-cost-blowout-19-billion","Cross River Rail was sold as a $5.4 billion project. The government now says it costs $19 billion","2026-10-25",{"project":44,"originalCost":45,"currentCost":46,"announced":47,"note":48},"Cross River Rail",5400000000,19041000000,"2017","Queensland Government figure (Oct 2025). It includes 25 years of tunnel maintenance and network works; Labor disputes counting them.",{"path":50,"title":51,"category":9,"date":42,"blowout":52},"\u002Fstories\u002Fhunter-class-frigates-27-billion-three-ships","Hunter-class frigates: sold as nine warships for $35 billion. We're now paying $27 billion for three",{"project":53,"originalCost":54,"currentCost":55,"announced":56,"note":57},"Hunter-class frigates",35000000000,45600000000,"2018","2020 Force Structure Plan estimate for nine ships. The program is now six ships; close to $27bn is allocated for the first three, including the Osborne shipyard.",{"path":59,"title":60,"category":9,"date":42,"blowout":61},"\u002Fstories\u002Finland-rail-cost-blowout-45-billion-parkes","Inland Rail was sold as a $10.7 billion project. It now costs $45.6 billion, and stops at Parkes",{"project":62,"originalCost":63,"currentCost":55,"announced":64,"note":65},"Inland Rail",10660000000,"2015","Both P90 estimates for the full Melbourne to Brisbane line. Only Beveridge to Parkes is now being built.",{"path":67,"title":68,"category":9,"date":42,"blowout":69},"\u002Fstories\u002Fnorth-east-link-cost-blowout-26-billion","North East Link was sold as a $10 billion road. It now costs $26 billion",{"project":70,"originalCost":71,"currentCost":72,"announced":73,"note":74},"North East Link",10000000000,26100000000,"2016","Victoria's December 2023 estimate. Includes the Eastern Freeway and M80 upgrades added since.",{"path":76,"title":77,"category":9,"date":42,"blowout":78},"\u002Fstories\u002Fsnowy-2-0-cost-blowout-25-billion","Snowy 2.0 was sold as a $2 billion project. It could now cost $25 billion",{"project":79,"originalCost":80,"currentCost":81,"announced":47,"note":82},"Snowy 2.0",2000000000,22200000000,"Target cost. Up to $25bn with contingency; transmission not included.",{"id":84,"title":85,"author":86,"bigNumber":87,"bigNumberLabel":88,"blowout":89,"body":90,"category":9,"date":42,"description":346,"draft":347,"extension":348,"featured":347,"focusKeywords":349,"image":350,"imageAlt":351,"meta":352,"navigation":353,"path":354,"people":355,"readingTime":356,"refresh":89,"seo":357,"shareImage":89,"sources":358,"stem":383,"tags":384,"updated":89,"__hash__":391},"stories\u002Fstories\u002Fbig-build-cfmeu-15-billion-corruption-estimate.md","The $15 billion question: what corruption on Victoria's Big Build may have cost you","Aussie Outrage","$15bn","Geoffrey Watson SC's estimate of what corruption may have cost taxpayers on Victoria's Big Build (disputed by the government)",null,{"type":91,"value":92,"toc":336},"minimark",[93,97,105,110,115,123,126,129,140,144,147,150,172,175,179,182,185,188,206,210,301,304,307,311,314,317],[94,95,96],"p",{},"How much of the money Victoria has poured into its Big Build ended up in the wrong hands?",[94,98,99,100,104],{},"Geoffrey Watson SC, the barrister who investigated the Victorian branch of the CFMEU's construction division, has put a number on it: about ",[101,102,103],"strong",{},"$15 billion",". The Victorian government disputes the figure. Nobody, including Watson, says it is an audited sum that went missing. But it's the best estimate on the public record, and it is now at the centre of a royal commission and a state election.",[106,107],"big-stat",{"label":108,"source":109,"value":87},"Watson's estimate of what corruption may have cost Victorian taxpayers on Big Build projects","Geoffrey Watson SC; disputed by the Victorian government",[111,112,114],"h2",{"id":113},"where-the-15-billion-comes-from","Where the $15 billion comes from",[94,116,117,118,122],{},"Watson's report on the Victorian branch, ",[119,120,121],"em",{},"Rotting From The Top",", was tendered to Queensland's Commission of Inquiry into the CFMEU on 11 February 2026. The public version estimates that the Big Build will cost more than $100 billion by the time it is finished.",[94,124,125],{},"An earlier draft estimated the union's conduct had cost Victorian taxpayers around $15 billion, much of which Watson wrote went to criminals and organised crime gangs. The union's then administrator, Mark Irving, had that estimate redacted from the public version, along with Watson's criticisms of the state government, on the basis that they were outside the inquiry's terms of reference. The figure was reported anyway.",[94,127,128],{},"The number works out to roughly 15% of the program. Watson has described it as conservative, and says it covers inflated contract prices and delays as well as money lost directly to criminals.",[130,131],"split-bar",{":data":132,":decimals":133,"note":134,"prefix":135,"source":136,"subtitle":137,"suffix":138,"title":139},"[{\"label\":\"Watson's estimated cost of corruption\",\"value\":15,\"highlight\":true},{\"label\":\"The rest of the program\",\"value\":85}]","0","An estimate, not an audited figure. The Victorian government disputes it.","$","Geoffrey Watson SC: Big Build 'more than $100 billion' (public report) and the ~$15bn estimate (reported by the ABC)","Watson's estimate as a share of the Big Build program, billions of dollars","bn","What a 15% corruption cost would mean",[111,141,143],{"id":142},"what-the-report-found","What the report found",[94,145,146],{},"Watson describes a branch that, under its former leadership, \"collapsed into a squalid mess\" and became \"a violent, hateful, greedy rabble\". His conclusion: the Setka-led Victorian branch \"was no longer a trade union, it was a crime syndicate.\"",[94,148,149],{},"He traces the decline to the money. When the Big Build ramped up from 2015, labour was scarce and the union held the bargaining power. In the words of one industry figure quoted in the report: \"All of a sudden there was too much government money, and too many really big jobs.\" Among the report's findings:",[151,152,153,160,166],"ul",{},[154,155,156,159],"li",{},[101,157,158],{},"Bikies on site."," Watson found outlaw motorcycle gangs worked with elements of the union, and that some large building sites became drug distribution points.",[154,161,162,165],{},[101,163,164],{},"Jobs for sale."," Big Build labouring jobs were so lucrative that, according to the report, corrupt organisers and delegates bought and sold them.",[154,167,168,171],{},[101,169,170],{},"Labour hire."," Watson calls labour hire \"the single worst source of corruption\" in the sector, an industry that generates more than $1 billion a year on the Big Build.",[94,173,174],{},"Watson says he made adverse findings only where he was satisfied they were correct, and gave the benefit of any doubt to the people involved. Irving has stressed that the allegations have not been tested in court, and referred the report to the Australian Federal Police, Victoria Police, the Fair Work Commission and other regulators.",[111,176,178],{"id":177},"what-did-the-government-know","What did the government know?",[94,180,181],{},"In the redacted material, Watson argued the state government had been \"cowed\" by the union's industrial power, knew about the problem, and \"did nothing\", because keeping the union on side was the only way to finish the projects.",[94,183,184],{},"The government's position, under then premier Jacinta Allan, was that it did not contribute to Watson's report, that it has \"zero tolerance\" for this conduct, and that Big Build cost blowouts were driven by inflation. It pointed to its own review by Greg Wilson, which made eight recommendations in December 2024, and to referrals to Victoria Police and the anti-corruption commission, IBAC.",[94,186,187],{},"Two pieces of evidence have since put pressure on that position:",[151,189,190,200],{},[154,191,192,195,196,199],{},[101,193,194],{},"The Metro Tunnel payment."," ",[119,197,198],{},"The Age"," has reported that Allan approved an $837 million payment to the Metro Tunnel consortium after a legal letter set out how union demands had driven up costs. Allan has denied any wrongdoing.",[154,201,202,205],{},[101,203,204],{},"The 2023 briefing."," At the royal commission's first public hearing, counsel assisting tendered a June 2023 briefing to Allan, then transport infrastructure minister, from the Major Transport Infrastructure Authority. According to the ABC, it cited \"anecdotal reports\" of criminal elements on its projects, including members of the Mongol and Bandidos motorcycle clubs.",[111,207,209],{"id":208},"a-premier-falls-a-royal-commission-begins","A premier falls, a royal commission begins",[211,212,213,226],"table",{},[214,215,216],"thead",{},[217,218,219,223],"tr",{},[220,221,222],"th",{},"Date",[220,224,225],{},"What happened",[227,228,229,237,245,253,261,269,277,285,293],"tbody",{},[217,230,231,234],{},[232,233,64],"td",{},[232,235,236],{},"The Big Build ramps up. Watson says this is when \"things went badly downhill\"",[217,238,239,242],{},[232,240,241],{},"23 Aug 2024",[232,243,244],{},"The CFMEU's construction division is placed in administration under federal law",[217,246,247,250],{},[232,248,249],{},"Dec 2024",[232,251,252],{},"The Wilson review makes eight recommendations to the Victorian government",[217,254,255,258],{},[232,256,257],{},"11 Feb 2026",[232,259,260],{},"Watson's report is tendered to Queensland's CFMEU inquiry, with the $15bn estimate redacted",[217,262,263,266],{},[232,264,265],{},"28 Jul 2026",[232,267,268],{},"Premier Jacinta Allan resigns before a caucus vote on her leadership; Ben Carroll becomes premier",[217,270,271,274],{},[232,272,273],{},"20 Aug 2026",[232,275,276],{},"Carroll announces a royal commission led by former South Australian chief justice Christopher Kourakis",[217,278,279,282],{},[232,280,281],{},"23 Sep 2026",[232,283,284],{},"The royal commission holds its first public hearing",[217,286,287,290],{},[232,288,289],{},"28 Nov 2026",[232,291,292],{},"Victorian state election",[217,294,295,298],{},[232,296,297],{},"By 20 Aug 2027",[232,299,300],{},"Royal commission due to report",[94,302,303],{},"Allan had consistently refused to call a royal commission. By the time she resigned, police had laid more than 90 charges, including against bikies, senior union officials and labour hire company owners, and the Labour Hire Authority had cancelled the licences of 164 construction firms.",[94,305,306],{},"Carroll's royal commission has a $50 million budget and terms of reference that cover the union, construction companies, labour hire firms, consortia, criminal actors, and the role of government itself, including \"inflated, misdirected, or wasted funding\" and whether any of it can be recovered. \"Nothing is off limits,\" Carroll said. The opposition called it \"a cover-up commission\", arguing the terms show too little interest in the cost to taxpayers. The union's current administrator, Michael Crosby, said it will cooperate fully, and urged the commission to \"follow the evidence wherever it leads\", including to developers and contractors.",[111,308,310],{"id":309},"what-it-costs-you","What it costs you",[94,312,313],{},"If Watson's estimate is right, the bill is enormous. The state opposition has claimed corruption is costing every Victorian household more than $5,000. The government says the estimate is wrong. Only the royal commission, with the power to compel witnesses and follow the money, is likely to settle it, and its report isn't due until after Victorians have voted.",[94,315,316],{},"We'll update this story as the royal commission hears evidence.",[94,318,319],{},[119,320,321,322,329,330,335],{},"Top photo: a Metro Tunnel construction site on A'Beckett Street, Melbourne (file photo, 2020). Photo: Philip Mallis, ",[323,324,328],"a",{"href":325,"rel":326},"https:\u002F\u002Fcreativecommons.org\u002Flicenses\u002Fby-sa\u002F2.0",[327],"nofollow","CC BY-SA 2.0",", via ",[323,331,334],{"href":332,"rel":333},"https:\u002F\u002Fcommons.wikimedia.org\u002Fwiki\u002FFile:Metro_Tunnel_construction_on_A%27Beckett_Street,_Melbourne.jpg",[327],"Wikimedia Commons",".",{"title":337,"searchDepth":338,"depth":339,"links":340},"",2,3,[341,342,343,344,345],{"id":113,"depth":338,"text":114},{"id":142,"depth":338,"text":143},{"id":177,"depth":338,"text":178},{"id":208,"depth":338,"text":209},{"id":309,"depth":338,"text":310},"A senior barrister estimates criminal infiltration of the CFMEU added about $15 billion to Victoria's Big Build. The government disputes it. A premier has resigned, a royal commission is under way, and Victorians vote on 28 November.",false,"md",[],"\u002Fimages\u002Fbig-build-metro-tunnel-abeckett-street.jpg","Hoardings and a white shed around a Metro Tunnel construction site on A'Beckett Street in Melbourne",{},true,"\u002Fstories\u002Fbig-build-cfmeu-15-billion-corruption-estimate",[],6,{"title":85,"description":346},[359,362,365,368,371,374,377,380],{"title":360,"url":361},"Geoffrey Watson SC, 'Rotting From The Top: The CFMEU in Victoria During the Setka Era' (public, redacted version), tendered to Queensland's CFMEU Commission of Inquiry","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.cfmeuinquiry.qld.gov.au\u002F__data\u002Fassets\u002Fpdf_file\u002F0005\u002F897476\u002Fgw-13-watson-report-victoria-redacted.pdf",{"title":363,"url":364},"ABC News: Victorian CFMEU branch became 'hateful, greedy rabble' under John Setka, report finds (11 Feb 2026)","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.abc.net.au\u002Fnews\u002F2026-02-11\u002Fvic-cfmeu-report-government-victoria\u002F106329680",{"title":366,"url":367},"The Mandarin: Victoria's Big Build ripped off by $15bn as CFMEU corruption runs unchecked (23 Feb 2026)","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.themandarin.com.au\u002F307778-victoria-ripped-off-by-15bn-cfmeu-corruption-runs-unchecked\u002F",{"title":369,"url":370},"The Conversation \u002F Monash Lens: How the 'Big Build' corruption allegations brought down the Victorian premier (28 Jul 2026)","https:\u002F\u002Flens.monash.edu\u002Fhow-the-big-build-corruption-allegations-brought-down-the-victorian-premier\u002F",{"title":372,"url":373},"ABC News: Investigators given powers to delve into underbelly of Victoria's construction sector (29 Jul 2026)","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.abc.net.au\u002Fnews\u002F2026-07-29\u002Fvictoria-big-build-underbelly-exposed-by-royal-commission\u002F106968696",{"title":375,"url":376},"ABC News: Former chief justice Christopher Kourakis to head Victoria's royal commission into construction sector (20 Aug 2026)","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.abc.net.au\u002Fnews\u002F2026-08-20\u002Fvic-premier-ben-carroll-announces-construction-royal-commission\u002F107057862",{"title":378,"url":379},"ABC News: Victorian royal commission into corruption in construction sector holds secret hearings (23 Sep 2026)","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.abc.net.au\u002Fnews\u002F2026-09-23\u002Fvictoria-construction-royal-commission-starts\u002F107179980",{"title":381,"url":382},"The Conversation: Without a Royal Commission, we won't know the scale of the corruption in Victoria's Big Build","https:\u002F\u002Ftheconversation.com\u002Fwithout-a-royal-commission-we-wont-know-the-scale-of-the-corruption-in-victorias-big-build-287951","stories\u002Fbig-build-cfmeu-15-billion-corruption-estimate",[385,386,387,388,389,390],"cfmeu","big-build","victoria","corruption","royal-commission","organised-crime","MSe4uMG1uO_iRgxtRAtzP7La-NhQhCH7Htoz3gbzXmU",[393,401,410,418],{"path":394,"title":395,"description":396,"date":397,"category":9,"author":86,"image":89,"imageAlt":89,"bigNumber":398,"bigNumberLabel":399,"readingTime":400,"featured":347},"\u002Fstories\u002Fsuburban-rail-loop-cost-96-billion","Suburban Rail Loop cost: $50bn promised, $96.4bn forecast","How much will the Suburban Rail Loop cost? $33.3bn for stage one, says the government, but the Auditor-General says it could top $36bn. Two stages: $96.4bn.","2026-11-01","$96.4bn","What Victoria's Parliamentary Budget Office estimated in 2024 it would cost to build two sections of the loop. All of it was promised for $50bn.",12,{"path":402,"title":403,"description":404,"date":405,"category":9,"author":86,"image":406,"imageAlt":407,"bigNumber":408,"bigNumberLabel":409,"readingTime":338,"featured":347},"\u002Fstories\u002Fbig-build-office-pot-plants-1-6-million","$1.6 million on pot plants for Big Build offices","Rail Projects Victoria spent an estimated $1.64 million on plant hire and maintenance, and the Suburban Rail Loop Authority almost $200,000 more, according to the state opposition.","2026-10-26","\u002Fimages\u002Foffice-plants-desk.jpg","Small potted succulents on a timber office desk","$1.6m","Estimated spend on plant hire and maintenance at Rail Projects Victoria",{"path":411,"title":412,"description":413,"date":405,"category":9,"author":86,"image":414,"imageAlt":415,"bigNumber":416,"bigNumberLabel":417,"readingTime":338,"featured":347},"\u002Fstories\u002Fcommonwealth-games-cancelled-589-million","$589 million to host nothing: what cancelling the Commonwealth Games cost Victoria","Victoria pulled out of the 2026 Commonwealth Games to save money. The Auditor-General found walking away cost $589 million with no discernible benefit, and the $6.9 billion figure used to justify it was overstated.","\u002Fimages\u002Feureka-stadium-ballarat.jpg","An aerial view of Eureka Stadium in Ballarat, with a blue athletics track behind it","$589m","What Victoria paid to cancel the 2026 Commonwealth Games",{"path":419,"title":420,"description":421,"date":405,"category":9,"author":86,"image":422,"imageAlt":423,"bigNumber":424,"bigNumberLabel":425,"readingTime":338,"featured":347},"\u002Fstories\u002Fmachete-ban-13-million-bins","The $13 million machete ban: what the money actually pays for","Victoria set aside $13 million for its machete ban and amnesty bins. The bins cost about $2,400 each. The government still hasn't said where the rest of the money goes.","\u002Fimages\u002Fmachete-amnesty-bin-echuca.jpg","A navy steel bin labelled Machete Amnesty Safe Disposal Bin outside Echuca police station","$13m","Budgeted for Victoria's machete ban, including about 45 disposal bins",[427,432],{"title":428,"path":429,"stem":430,"description":431,"children":-1},"1,149 of Australia's biggest companies paid no income tax last year","\u002Fstories\u002Fato-tax-transparency-2024-25-companies-paid-no-tax","stories\u002Fato-tax-transparency-2024-25-companies-paid-no-tax","The ATO's latest tax transparency report covers every company earning more than $100 million. More than one in four paid nothing. Here's what the numbers show, and why the tax office says it's not always a scandal.",{"title":41,"path":40,"stem":433,"description":434,"children":-1},"stories\u002Fcross-river-rail-cost-blowout-19-billion","Brisbane's Cross River Rail was promised for $5.4bn by 2024. The Queensland Government now puts it at $19.04bn, with first trains in 2029. Labor says the books were cooked.",1793703844211]