Power prices 'fell' this year. So why is your bill bigger?

In May, the Australian Energy Regulator announced good news: the benchmark electricity price for 2026-27 would fall by between 3.4% and 7.2% for households in NSW and south-east Queensland.

If you've opened a power bill since, you may not have noticed.

The ACCC collects real bills from retailers covering nine in ten households. In the July to September quarter of 2025, the median household bill, after rebates, was 18% higher in Victoria, 20% higher in NSW and 22% higher in South Australia than a year earlier.

Three things the "price fall" leaves out

1. The rebates are gone. From July 2024, the federal Energy Bill Relief Fund took $300 off every household's power bill over the year, in $75 quarterly credits. It was extended by another $150 to December 2025, then the Treasurer confirmed it would not be extended again. The rebate never made power cheaper; it just hid part of the bill. Now the full price is back on your bill. The ABS says the end of the rebates is the main reason electricity prices rose 13.2% in the year to August 2026, one of the biggest drivers of Australia's inflation rate.

Take the rebates out and the rise is starker. Before rebates, the median quarterly bill across NSW, Victoria, South Australia and south-east Queensland was 37% higher in July to September 2025 than in the same quarter of 2021.

2. A small fall after a very big rise. Look at the regulator's benchmark (the Default Market Offer) over time:

Households without a controlled load (such as an off-peak hot water meter), standing offers. Source: AER final determinations.

A 5% fall after a 20%-plus rise still leaves you far worse off than in 2022.

The last two years show it most clearly. In NSW, this year's cut doesn't undo last year's rise:

South-east Queensland is the exception: its cut this year is bigger than last year's rise. South Australia went up both years.

3. The benchmark isn't your bill. The Default Market Offer is a cap on the standing offer for people who never switched plans. Your bill depends on your retailer, your plan and how much power you use. The ACCC found bills rose because of both higher effective prices and higher usage.

Who's still paying the most

The regulator's 2026-27 benchmark bill for a typical household ranges from $1,899 a year in Ausgrid's network (Sydney, the Central Coast and Newcastle) to $2,604 in Essential Energy's (regional NSW), with South Australia at $2,334. Each network's "typical household" uses a different amount of power, so these aren't exact comparisons. South Australians are the only households covered by the benchmark who saw it go up again this year.

The ACCC also found households with solar panels and a battery had bills $329 to $909 a year lower (20% to 52%) than customers relying on the grid alone, a gap that leaves renters, and anyone who can't afford panels and a battery, paying the most.

And then there's heating

For millions of homes, especially in Victoria, winter means gas heating, and gas has its own story.

In Victoria, 60% of all gas is used by homes and small businesses, mostly for heating and cooking. That gas now costs around $13 to $14 a gigajoule wholesale, up from $3 to $4 before east coast exports started in 2015, because producers can sell it overseas instead. Three-quarters of east coast gas is exported.

Why it matters

Power and gas aren't optional. Families can switch brands at the supermarket; they can't switch off the fridge or the heater in July.

Next year's benchmark prices will be released in draft in March 2027 and finalised in May 2027. We'll publish what they mean for your bill the day they come out.

Tell us what your power bill was this year and five years ago: send us a tip.

Top photo: electricity pylons at Gregadoo, NSW (file photo, 2009). Photo: Bidgee, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons.